The Surface-To-Air Threat, Paranoia And Probability

Although it (probably) hasn't happened on U.S. soil, missile attacks are a disturbingly common cause of commercial aircraft crashes elsewhere. There have been 24 commercial planes officially downed by shoulder-fired missiles in the last 20 years, killing about 500 people, according to The Associated Press. That figure does not include TWA 800 (July '96), EgyptAir 990 (Oct. '99), or AA 587 (Nov. '01). In each of those cases, a jumbo jet and all aboard were lost near (or on) the south shore of Long Island, N.Y. Each event spawned its own missile theories -- and some came with scores of eyewitnesses. All ultimately were attributed by the NTSB to other causes. Boxer says the U.S. should have received a wake-up call last November when an American Airlines pilot reported seeing a rocket fly past just after crossing the shoreline on departure from LAX. "American 612, can you verify whether you saw a flare or a rocket?" radioed an air traffic controller recorded on the ATC tapes. "It looked more like a rocket to me," the pilot at first responded. "I'm pretty sure it was a rocket of some kind, because it had a definite plume coming out behind it." Although there was no evidence that a shoulder-fired missile was involved (authorities believe it was most likely a hobby rocket) the investigation remains open and Boxer says it's reason enough to keep the anti-missile program open. "We had a scare in Los Angeles," said Boxer. "We've been told that they cannot rule out the fact that it was a shoulder-fired missile."

Almost Number 25

The most recent attack was on a DHL cargo plane in 2003. The missile hit the A310's left wing as it took off from Baghdad. The explosion and fire destroyed the aircraft's hydraulic system, eliminating any cockpit-initiated use of the control surfaces. The crew, using differential thrust only, managed to haul the airliner into a pretty respectable approach and landing and all of them walked away (see AVweb's NewsWire for the PowerPoint presentation). A year earlier, an attack on an Israeli airliner in Africa prompted action by the Israeli government. As AVweb told you in February, Israel's national airline, El Al, installed anti-missile systems on its entire fleet of 29 aircraft. It would appear the infrared systems meet U.S. safety requirements because there's no indication that flights to the four U.S. cities served by El Al have been interrupted. The Flight Guard system was developed by state-owned Israeli Aircraft Industries and certified in Israel in January. For those of you interested in viewing the DHL landing we invite you to have a look for yourself. (Warning: large file -- right-click to save to your desktop).